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Title: Census Statistics of the Negro: A Paper

Author: Walter F. Willcox

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*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK CENSUS
STATISTICS OF THE NEGRO: A PAPER ***

CENSUS STATISTICS OF THE
NEGRO.
A PAPER BY
WALTER F. WILLCOX.

[From the Yale Review, November, 1904.]

CENSUS STATISTICS OF THE NEGRO.

T HERE is no leading country in which the relations of widely different
races are so important as in the United States. As a natural result of this,
there is no country in which statistical investigation of race questions is so
highly developed, or in which the records cover so long a time. In Europe it
is not customary to recognize or emphasize the race classification of the
population in statistical returns. In India the race classification while
recognized is subsidiary to that of religion and of language. In American
countries to the south of the United States where race relations are as
complex and as diverse as they are with us, the statistical method is
imperfectly developed or of recent introduction. The main sources of
statistical information, therefore, regarding race relations are the figures for
the United States and those for several of the West Indian Islands.
Since the Civil War the statistical study of certain aspects of race questions
in the United States has been entered upon by different governmental
agencies. The Department of Agriculture has made investigations of the diet
and food supply of negroes and of whites with especial reference to the
bodily heat and the energy it can produce. The Department of Labor has
made a number of suggestive reports upon the condition of negro
communities in certain typical localities. Various municipal health reports
throw light upon the vital statistics of the two races. The Bureau of
Education has gathered much information regarding the educational
development of negroes and whites. But no one of these and perhaps not all
of them combined have furnished or are furnishing at the present time as
much information regarding the statistics of race in the United States as the
Census Bureau.[1] It is of the highest importance that the information thus
gathered should be carefully and intelligently interpreted and its lessons
correctly read. The object of this paper is to state certain conclusions to
which I have been brought by my statistical studies of the subject and
especially of the recent census figures.
The population of the United States is divided by the census returns into
four classes, the native white of native parents, the native white of foreign
born parents, that is, the children of immigrants, the immigrant or foreign

born white class, and the other races than the white, sometimes called
collectively the colored, perhaps more accurately described as the “non-
Caucasians.” The most accurate description of them is to enumerate the
great races to which they belong, namely, the negro, Indian and Mongolian.
Of this fourth group, the non-Caucasians, more than nineteen-twentieths are
negroes and therefore when statements are made, as I shall be compelled
sometimes to make them, not for the negroes but for the non-Caucasians, it
will be understood that nineteen-twentieths of these are negroes and what is
true, therefore, of the non-Caucasians is probably true of the negroes. These
four classes correspond roughly to four grades of economic well-being,—
the native white of native parents at the top, the negroes, Indians, and
Mongolians at the bottom. Now it is a general fact that the lower the scale
of economic well-being the less accurate on the average will be the answers
to questions put them. A measure of this can be derived from the answers to
the age question. It can be easily proved that the errors in reporting ages
among the immigrant white are about twice as numerous as among the
native white and among the non-Caucasians about twice as numerous as
among the immigrant white. Where age is stated erroneously it is usually
stated at a round number as a multiple of 5. The excess in the reported
number at these multiples of 5 over the estimated true number is thus a
measure of the accuracy of the figures. This excess in 1900 among persons
between twenty-eight and sixty-two years of age inclusive for the native
whites was 12.4 per cent. of the total estimated number at multiples of 5, for
the foreign born white 29.8, and for the negro 81.2. What is true of the
inaccuracies in the field of age statistics is probably true of other sorts of
inaccuracies. A larger proportion of the negro population than of the white
is homeless and therefore likely to be omitted by enumerators instructed to
visit every home in the country. In Maryland a careful recount of nearly
63,000 people was had a few months after the census day in the effort to
detect suspected fraud. The recount showed that in the original count the
omissions among negroes had been 3.7 per cent. and among whites 1.3 per
cent. These omissions were probably greater than in the general population,
but it is not unlikely that the per cent. of omissions among negroes is twice
as great as the per cent. among whites.
There is no race question upon which we have so great a lack of scientific
information at the present time as that of the degree of direct intermixture of
the two races. Public opinion at the South seems to be almost unanimous in

its belief that, since the Civil War and emancipation, intermixture of the two
races has decreased and that the mulatto population at the present time is
largely the offspring of mulattoes alone or of mulattoes and negroes, and
that there has been relatively little new infusion of white blood. But no
statistical basis for this opinion exists, and general observation on a
question so difficult and delicate must be regarded as a very slippery
foundation for the belief. Questions on this point were introduced into the
censuses of 1850, 1860, 1870, 1880 and 1890, and the results were
tabulated and published for each of these censuses except 1880. Prior to
1890 the question was asked in substantially the same terms, that is, simply
the number of mulattoes. In 1890 unfortunately it was sought to amplify the
question and Congress required the Census Office to report the number of
mulattoes, quadroons and octoroons. Such precision in this field is
unobtainable and, in natural reaction against the misleading results obtained
in 1890, the Office in 1900 omitted the question entirely. I cannot feel that
this was wise. The results obtained in 1850, 1860 and 1870 for the whole
United States showed substantial agreement, the per cent. of mulattoes
among the total negroes having been reported as in 1850, 11.2; in 1860,
13.2; in 1870, 12.0. These figures cannot be accepted as showing an
increase in the proportion of mulattoes down to the Civil War and a slight
decrease after that time, much less can the slightly larger proportion of
mulattoes reported in 1890 (15.2 per cent.) with a different form of question
be regarded as any evidence of an increase of race mixture since
emancipation, but the general conclusion that between one-eighth and one-
ninth of the negro population at about the time of the Civil War was mulatto
may be regarded as probable.
I believe that if the question should be repeated in 1910 in substantially the
same terms as those employed in 1850, 1860, 1870 and 1880, the results
would be likely to indicate far more accurately than general observation can
do whether the proportion of mulattoes among the negroes has increased or
decreased since emancipation. To establish this, one need not believe that
the reported percentages at former censuses were correct. All that would be
necessary for such a result would be that the question put in substantially
the same terms at intervals during half a century would secure answers
which if not entirely accurate would at least err in the same direction and by
about the same amount.

At the present time there are about nine and one-fifth million negroes under
the United States flag, including those in Porto Rico, Alaska, and Hawaii, as
well as the negroes of continental United States. This does not include the
negritoes, much less the Malays, of the Philippine Islands. In continental
United States, excluding Alaska and our insular accessions, there are about
eight and five-sixths million negroes. Nearly nine-tenths of them (89.7 per
cent.) live in the southern states, that is, the states south of Mason and
Dixon’s line, the Ohio River and the parallel of the southern boundary of
Missouri. The per cent. living in the southern states, however, is very
slowly decreasing. In 1860, 92.2 per cent. were living there; in 1880, 90.5
per cent.; in 1900, 89.7 per cent., or in other words, in 1860, 78 negroes
among each 1,000 in the country were living outside of the South, in 1900,
103 in each 1,000. Apparently there was a considerable change in the
distribution of the negroes as a result of the upheaval in the Civil War. Then
followed a period of relative quiescence, but in the last decade of the
century there was an increase in the northward current of negro migration,
especially to northern cities. That the negro population in our large cities is
increasing with greater rapidity than the white population appears clearly
when the totals of the two races are obtained for the thirty-eight cities which
had at least 100,000 inhabitants in 1900. The increase of negroes in these
cities, 1890 to 1900, was 38.0 per cent., and that of whites 32.7 per cent.,
and in the five southern cities of this class, Baltimore, Washington,
Louisville, Memphis and New Orleans, the increase of whites was 20.8, and
of negroes 25.8 per cent. Washington was the only southern city of this
class in which the negro population did not increase, 1890 to 1900, with
greater rapidity than the white. This rapid increase of the negro population
in the larger cities of the country is the more significant, because thirty-
three of these thirty-eight cities lie in the north and west and therefore
increase of their negro population usually results from long distance
migration, and because also the negro population of smaller cities and of
country districts has been increasing as a rule less rapidly than the white
population.
There is no traceable tendency to a separation between negroes and whites
in the South whereby the negro population is becoming more predominant
in the rural districts and the white population in the cities. Perhaps the best
evidence on this point is that derived from the 242 cities in the South
Atlantic and South Central States, which had at least 2,500 inhabitants both

in 1890 and in 1900, and for which, therefore, the race composition of the
population was separately returned. The negro population of these 242
places increased between 1890 and 1900 by 21.7 per cent., the white
population by 26.5 per cent. The negro population of the rest of the
southern States outside these 242 places increased 16.4 per cent., while the
white population outside these 242 places increased 25.0 per cent. The
figures show the remarkable fact, which so far as I know is unparalleled,
that the growth of white population in the South has been almost as rapid in
the country districts as in the cities. Whether this means that the white
population is betaking itself more to agriculture, it would be difficult to
assert from the figures. The negro population is increasing in southern cities
about one-third faster than in country districts. Or, the facts may be stated
perhaps more intelligibly in this way. In the 242 southern cities for which
the race figures are distinguished both for 1890 and for 1900, there were in
1890, 464 negroes to 1,000 whites; in 1900 there were 447, a decrease of
17. Meantime, in the country districts there were in 1890, 522 negroes to
1,000 whites, and in 1900 there were 486, a decrease of 36. These figures
show that the decrease in the proportion of negroes relative to whites in the
southern States in the last decade has been twice as rapid in the country
districts as in the cities.
In studying the increase of the negro population it must be borne in mind
that the figures of 1870 are admitted to be seriously inaccurate. There are
some reasons also for doubting the accuracy of the census of the negroes in
1890. In order to avoid using these erroneous or questionable figures and
also in order to base the computation on long periods of time, the increase
has been computed by each of the five twenty-year periods of the
nineteenth century. As the negro problem is preëminently one of interest to
the South it seems fairer to compare the growth of the two races in that
region. Such a comparison shows that the negro population of the South
increased most rapidly during the first twenty years of the nineteenth
century and that its rate of increase steadily declined to the end of the
century. The rate of increase of southern whites was highest not from 1800
to 1820, but 1840 to 1860. Perhaps the results may be stated in a way to
make them most easily intelligible by treating the rate of increase of whites
in the southern States in the given twenty-year period as 100 and comparing
with it the rate of increase of southern negroes during the same period of
time. Following this method, the increase of the southern negroes, 1800 to

1820, was to that of southern whites as 125 to 100, that from 1820 to 1840
was 110, that from 1840 to 1860 was 87, that from 1860 to 1880 was 90,
and that from 1880 to 1900 was 57. These figures show that since 1840 the
increase of southern negroes has been less rapid than that of southern
whites, that the increase from 1860 to 1880 was relatively more rapid than
in the preceding or the following twenty-year period, suggesting that the
period of war and of reconstruction affected the increase of the white race
more than that of the negroes. At the beginning of the nineteenth century
the southern negroes were increasing much faster than the southern whites.
At the end of it they were increasing only about three-fifths as fast.
But to complete the presentation of the results reached by the Census
Bureau on this point, it should be added that if the results for the last
twenty-year period be analyzed by decades a different conclusion is
indicated. Comparison of the rates of growth of southern negroes and
southern whites for those two decades shows that the rate of increase for
southern negroes, 1880 to 1890, was to that of southern whites as 55 is to
100, while in the decade from 1890 to 1900 it was as 68 to 100. I confess
myself skeptical of the accuracy of these figures. It is difficult for me to
accept results which show on their face that the rate of increase of southern
whites east of the Mississippi River was less, 1890 to 1900, than it was
1880 to 1890, the rate falling from 19.1 to 18.7, while that for southern
negroes in the same area was much greater in the second decade, the rate
rising from 10.6 to 15.7. At the same time I see nothing better at present
than to mark these figures as questionable and to suspend judgment until
the results for 1910 are published. It may be that the increase among the
negroes has been affected by the marked prosperity of the South in recent
years and has been affected more conspicuously than the figures for the
whites.
With reference to sex it may be noted that there is an excess of females
among the negro population of the United States, while this is not true
either of the Indians or of the native whites. Strangely enough, this excess
of females is found even at the very earliest ages. It is a general rule that the
number of male children born exceeds the number of female. Among 100
children born, on the average about 51 are male and 49 female. The scanty
records of births in cities where the negroes constitute a considerable
element of the population, show that in this respect the negroes conform to

the rule. Yet negro children even at the very earliest ages, as enumerated by
the census, show an excess of females over males. This is true of negro
children under one month, and of each of the four other subdivisions of age
under one year. Indeed it is true for every year of age up to nine. It may be
noted that this anomaly appears for the first time in the figures for 1900.
Whether it is due to the fact that that census first made the distinction
between negro population and the total colored, including the Indians and
Mongolians, I am unable to say.
In the city population of the United States as a rule, females outnumber the
males. This generalization holds true of the great majority of cities east of
the Mississippi River. It is more true of the negroes than it is of the whites.
In the southern cities and towns having at least 2,500 inhabitants in 1900,
there were 9 more negro females than males in each 100 of negro
population. Among children the two sexes were approximately equal in
numbers, so that if the figures allowed us to exclude the children the
preponderance of females would be still greater. The cause is doubtless to
be found in large measure in the greater demand and greater opportunity for
female labor in cities.
At the present time rather more than half of the negroes over ten years of
age are able to write. The per cent. of illiteracy has decreased rapidly in the
last ten years. In 1890 it was 57.1, while in 1900 it was 45.5. This rapid
decrease in negro illiteracy has gone on parallel with the rapid decrease of
illiteracy among whites. At the present time the negroes as a race show
about seven times the proportion of illiterates that the whites do and about
four times the proportion of illiterates found among southern whites, and
these ratios between the two races have not materially changed since 1890.
Illiteracy is much more prevalent in the country districts than it is in the
cities. About half of the negroes living outside cities having at least 25,000
inhabitants are illiterate, while in these cities less than one-third are
illiterate. The rapid development of the educational system among negroes
in the South has left clear traces upon the proportion of illiterates in the
several age classes. The highest proportion of illiterates is found among
negroes at least sixty-five years of age, the lowest among negroes ten to
fourteen years of age. The difference between these two age limits is rather
greater than the difference between city and country negroes, the illiteracy
of all negroes over sixty-five being rather greater than that of negroes in

country districts, and the illiteracy of negroes between ten and fourteen
years of age being rather less than that of all negroes living in cities having
at least 25,000 inhabitants. If the per cent. of illiteracy among negroes
should continue to dwindle in the future as rapidly as it did, 1890 to 1900,
an improbable contingency, negro illiteracy would disappear by 1940.
No noteworthy results appear from the statistics of marital condition among
the negroes. They correspond closely with the statistics for southern whites,
the main differences being that the race has a very much larger proportion
of widowed and divorced persons and that in the last ten years there has
been a decline in the proportion of adult negroes who were married, while
among southern whites there has been an increase in the proportion who
were married. Both races show a decided increase in early marriages, this
being true for the country as a whole and probably the result of the high
prosperity which prevailed immediately before 1900.
Perhaps the most important suggestions derived from the analysis of the
figures for the Twelfth Census are found in the statistics of occupations.
The detailed results of these must be regarded as open to some question
since the classification of occupations is perhaps as difficult a problem as
any with which the Census Bureau has to grapple, and it is possible that the
figures for 1890 and 1900 may not in all cases be strictly comparable. Still
certain salient results appear to be established.
Among all the negroes at least ten years of age about five-eighths, 62.2 per
cent., are engaged in money getting or gainful occupations. The
corresponding proportion among southern whites is less than one-half (46.9
per cent.). The difference between the two races is almost entirely explained
by the greater prevalence of money-getting occupations among female
negroes, 41.3 per cent. of the negro females and only 11.8 per cent. of the
southern white females reporting a gainful occupation. This fact accounts
for about three-fourths of the entire difference between the negroes and the
southern whites. An explanation of the remaining fourth is found in the fact
that negro boys go to work earlier and negro men retire later than white
men. In general it may be said that the lower the earning capacity of a
productive class the greater the quantity of labor required for its support;
the greater the prevalence, therefore, of female labor, of child labor and of
the labor of old men. Part of this greater prevalence of child labor and old
man labor is due to the fact that the negroes are predominantly engaged in

agriculture and that this industry affords greater opportunities than most
others for the work of children and old men. Yet this fact only partly
accounts for the difference.
The most important specific occupations for the negroes are those of
agricultural laborers, farmers, planters and overseers, and laborers not
specified. These three classes are probably more numerous than the total
number of persons engaged in agriculture, for the number of laborers not
specified who were engaged in other occupations than agriculture is
probably greater than the number of persons engaged in agriculture and not
enrolled in any one of these three occupations. The total number of southern
negroes, with the few Indians and Mongolians engaged in this line of
industry, increased between 1890 and 1900 by 30.4 per cent., the southern
whites in the same occupations increasing in the same period by 43.5 per
cent. As a result the non-Caucasians constituted in 1890 44.4 per cent. of
the population in these classes, while in 1900 they constituted 42.0 per cent.
These three classes together include two-thirds of all the negro
breadwinners. In a number of specific occupations involving some degree
of skill, the non-Caucasians in the South constituted a somewhat smaller
proportion of the total number of laborers in the South in 1900 than they did
in 1890. This statement holds true for launderers and laundresses,
carpenters, barbers, tobacco and cigar factory operatives, and engineers and
firemen (not locomotive). In some other leading occupations the negroes
were more numerously represented in 1900 than in 1890. These include in
the professional classes, teachers and clergymen, and in the skilled labor
classes, miners and quarrymen and iron and steel workers.
While the future of the negro race in the United States seems to be
essentially an industrial and economic question, turning upon their
efficiency in comparison with classes of the population who compete with
them in their staple occupations, the net results of these various and
complex industrial changes can perhaps best be measured by the vital
statistics of the race. The Census Bureau has no direct information
regarding births or marriages. Its information regarding deaths is confined
to the negro population living in the registration area and amounting to
between one-seventh and one-eighth (13.4 per cent.) of the entire negro
population of the country, over 93 per cent. of it living in cities. The death-
rate of negroes in the registration area in 1900 was reported as 30.2 per

thousand, that of the whites in the same area being 17.3. But of the negroes
in this area the majority were female and the female is the healthier sex.
They were also predominantly adult and the adult years are the healthier
ages. To allow for these differences a computation has been made to
ascertain what the death-rate for the negroes for the whole country would
be, if the death-rate observed in the registration area for each sex and each
age had been true of the negroes of that sex and age in the country as a
whole. On this basis the estimated negro death-rate of the United States as a
whole is 34.2 instead of 30.2, or just about double that of the whites.
In 1890 the death-rate of the negroes in the registration area as
distinguished from the Indians and Mongolians was not computed. That of
the three races combined, nineteen-twentieths being negroes, was in 1890
29.9, and in 1900,29.6 per thousand, a decrease of three deaths per 10,000.
In the same area the death-rate of whites in 1890 was 19.1 and in 1900,
17.3, a decrease of 18 per 10,000. It is uncertain how far these figures may
be accepted as indicative of the actual changes. They are submitted not as
entirely trustworthy, but as the best information available.
Indirect evidence of the birth-rate among the negroes may be obtained by
computing the number of children under five years of age to each 1,000
women fifteen to forty-four. These computations show a very marked
decline between 1880 and 1900 in the proportion of negro children, but
show that the proportion of children at the present time is greater for
negroes than for whites.
But when the country is considered in sections separating the population of
the South from that of the North, different results appear. Negroes, as a
whole, have a larger proportion of living children than whites, but
paradoxical as it may seem, it is also true that southern negroes have at
present a smaller proportion of living children than southern whites, and
northern negroes have a smaller proportion of living children than northern
whites. The difference in the proportion of children stated in the preceding
paragraph, in other words, is fundamentally a geographical or sectional
difference and not a racial one. Negroes have a high proportion of children
not because they are negroes, but because nine-tenths of them live in the
South and show the effect of influences which establish a high birth-rate
there. The South at the present time is increasing in population faster than
the North, with all its immigration, largely because 1,000 white women at

the North, fifteen to forty-four years of age, could show at the census only
470 children under five years of age, while at the South 1,000 negro women
of those ages could show 621 children, and 1,000 white women 633
children. In the southern States prior to the Civil War the proportion of
children under five years of age to 1,000 women of child-bearing ages was
about the same for the two races. The immediate result of the Civil War,
emancipation and reconstruction, was to decrease slightly the number of
white women and increase the number of negro children, so that in 1880 for
1,000 women of the specified race and of child-bearing age, there were in
the South 82 more negro than white children. In 1890 the difference in
favor of the negro race had sunk to 17, and in 1900 it had disappeared and
been replaced by an excess of 12 white children.

The American negro, after the turmoil of Civil War and reconstruction,
found himself thrown on his own resources as he had never been before.
This occurred at the beginning of a period of rapid, almost revolutionary,
industrial change in the South, a change which did not at first affect
seriously the staple crops upon which most of the negro’s labor as a slave
had been spent, but which apparently is beginning to affect even those. In
seeking other avenues of self-support than agriculture and domestic service,
he is seriously handicapped by unfamiliarity with such work, a lack of
native aptitude for it, so it is alleged, absence of the capital often requisite,
and a preference on the part of most of the whites, even when other things
are equal, as they seldom are, to employ members of their own race. In the
industrial competition thus begun the negro seems during the last decade to
have slightly lost ground in most of those higher occupations in which the
services are rendered largely to whites. He has gained in the two so-called
learned professions of teachers and clergymen. He has gained in the two
skilled occupations of miner or quarryman and iron or steel worker. He has
gained in the occupations, somewhat ill-defined so far as the degree of skill
required is indicated, of sawing or planing, mill employee, and nurse or
midwife. He has gained in the class of servants and waiters. On the other
side of the balance sheet he has lost ground in the South as a whole in the
following skilled occupations: carpenter, barber, tobacco and cigar factory

operative, fisherman, engineer or fireman (not locomotive) and probably
blacksmith. He has lost ground also in the following industries in which the
degree of skill implied seems somewhat uncertain: laundry work, hackman
or teamster, steam railroad employee, housekeeper or steward. The balance
seems not favorable. It suggests that in the competition with white labor to
which the negro is being subjected he has not quite held his own.
These figures of occupations seem to me to furnish the best statistical clue
yet obtained for an understanding of the industrial and social changes
affecting this question in the South. My interpretation of their meaning
might be objected to on the ground that when the negroes are increasing
more slowly than the whites, as they are at present in the South, it should
not be expected that they would increase as fast as whites in the skilled
occupations. This objection seems to me to invert the true order of
causation, to put the cart before the horse. Should we not rather say that
southern negroes are increasing at the present time only two-thirds as fast as
southern whites, while from 1800 to 1840 they increased faster and from
1840 to 1880 nearly as fast, because they are not succeeding in entering
new occupations or prospering as well in their old as the competing race is
doing?
If this view of the process is correct, then one may add in closing that, as
these occupation figures throw much light upon the causes, so the figures of
an almost stationary death-rate for negroes compared with a rapidly
decreasing death-rate for whites, and an apparently declining birth-rate for
negroes compared with an actually increasing birth-rate for southern whites,
are the best statistical keys to its effects.
Walter F. Willcox.
Cornell University.

FOOTNOTE:
[1] See especially Census Bulletin 8 entitled “Negroes in the United States,”
Washington, 1904.

TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES:
The cover image for this eBook has been created by the transcriber and is entered into
the public domain.
Obvious typographical errors have been corrected.

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